Experts Just Updated the 2025 Mortgage Rate Forecast: What It Means for Fort Myers & Naples Real Estate
If you’ve been waiting for mortgage rates to shift before jumping into the Southwest Florida housing market, the time to pay attention is now. Fannie Mae just released its updated forecast for 2025, and it’s signaling a major change in affordability for homebuyers in Fort Myers, Naples, and beyond.
This isn’t just another headline—it’s the starting gun for the next real estate cycle. Let’s break down the forecast, why it matters, and how it directly impacts your ability to buy a home in Lee or Collier County.
Fannie Mae’s Updated 2025 Mortgage Rate Forecast
According to Fannie Mae’s August 2025 update, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to finish the year around 6.5%. Looking ahead to 2026, experts project a continued slow decline to 6.1%.
While that may not sound like the ultra-low 3% rates we saw in 2020–2021, the real story is the direction of the trend. After years of volatility and spikes above 7%, this forecast signals predictability, stability, and affordability returning to the market.
This “higher for longer” environment doesn’t mean rates will crash—but it does suggest the peak is behind us and the path forward is gradually improving conditions for buyers.
Why Mortgage Rates Are Easing
The shift in forecasts comes down to one word: inflation. For years, the Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates to cool the economy. That effort is now showing results, with inflation slowing and the economy gradually stabilizing.
As the Fed begins signaling cuts to its benchmark rate, the 10-year Treasury yield—a key influencer of mortgage rates—has been trending lower. This ripple effect is what’s pulling mortgage rates down.
Don’t expect a freefall, though. Inflation is still present, and that’s why Fannie Mae projects a gradual decline instead of a dramatic drop. The good news? Buyers and sellers finally have a more predictable runway to make smart moves.
The Affordability Equation: Rates + Prices in Southwest Florida
This forecast comes at the same time that the Fort Myers and Naples real estate markets are seeing much-needed price corrections:
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Fort Myers (Lee County): Median single-family home prices are down 5–9% year over year, with most homes now selling between $335,000–$375,000.
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Naples (Collier County): Median home prices have dropped a significant 19–21% from peak levels, bringing many properties back into the $755,000–$767,000 range.
Combine that with a 1% mortgage rate drop (from 7.5% to 6.5%), and buyers could save hundreds of dollars per month and tens of thousands over the life of the loan.
This is the sweet spot where affordability and opportunity align—a rare moment in the Southwest Florida housing cycle.
Current Market Dynamics: A Buyer’s Market (For Now)
As of mid-2025, both Lee and Collier counties are firmly in buyer’s market territory:
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Inventory: Lee County has 7.4 months of supply, while Collier County is closer to 10–12 months. (A balanced market is 4–6 months.)
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Days on Market: Homes in Fort Myers average 100–110 days to sell; in Naples, it’s 95–105 days.
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Negotiation Power: Properties are selling for around 95% of their original list price, giving buyers room to negotiate.
The frenzy of bidding wars is gone—for now. But as rates continue easing into 2026, experts expect demand to return quickly, tightening inventory and reducing buyer leverage.
Your Action Plan as a Buyer
If you’re considering buying in Fort Myers, Naples, or anywhere in Southwest Florida, sitting on the sidelines could mean missing this window. Here’s your four-step action plan:
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Get Pre-Approved Immediately – Lock in your buying power before competition heats up.
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Recalculate Your Budget – Lower rates + corrected prices = more home for your money.
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Define Your Must-Haves – With inventory high, you can shop strategically instead of settling.
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Work With a Local Expert – Every neighborhood in Lee and Collier County behaves differently; insider knowledge is your advantage.
Final Thoughts
The bottom line? Fannie Mae’s 2025 mortgage rate forecast is a green light for buyers in Fort Myers, Naples, and all of Southwest Florida. With lower borrowing costs, price corrections, and high inventory, the current market offers a rare chance to buy smart.
But this window won’t last forever. As rates continue easing and buyers flood back into the market, competition will increase and negotiating power will fade.
The time to act is now.
📌 Want a step-by-step plan? Download my free HOME BUYER ROADMAP packed with checklists, strategies, and local insights to help you navigate this unique market opportunity.
