Waiting for Prices to Drop? New Research Says You'll Be Waiting 7 Years
Oxford Economics projects housing affordability won't meaningfully recover for at least seven years — putting a realistic timeline somewhere around 2033. In Naples and Fort Myers, where the median sold price sits at $605,550 and $338,000 respectively with inventory still rising, waiting has real costs. Every month on the sidelines means rent payments with no equity upside, and no guarantee that rates will fall without prices climbing to match. This post breaks down the math so you can decide with the full picture in front of you.
A lot of buyers right now are in a holding pattern, watching the market and waiting for prices to come down.
Oxford Economics just put a number on how long that wait might actually be: seven years.
That projection comes from one of the most widely cited economic research firms in the world. If you're in Naples or Fort Myers wondering whether to keep waiting or start moving, you'll want to understand what that timeline really means for you.
This is a look at the math behind the "wait and see" strategy, so you can make a decision based on the full picture.
What "Housing Affordability" Actually Means
When people say they're waiting for housing to become "more affordable," they usually mean they're waiting for prices to drop.
But home prices are just one piece of the housing affordability puzzle.
Home prices: what sellers are asking and what buyers are paying
Mortgage rates: which determine how much of your monthly payment goes to interest
Income: how much purchasing power buyers actually have
All three have to move in the right direction for affordability to improve in a meaningful way.
Prices could flatten while rates stay elevated, and a buyer's monthly payment barely budges. Or rates could drop while prices climb in response to increased demand, and the monthly cost lands in roughly the same place.
Oxford Economics' seven-year projection accounts for how all these factors interact, and what it would realistically take for housing costs to come back in line with what a typical household can afford to spend.
What Oxford Economics Is Projecting
Oxford Economics' research, published in June 2026, projects that housing affordability won't see meaningful recovery for at least seven years. That puts a realistic improvement timeline somewhere around 2033.
For context, Oxford Economics is a global research firm whose economic modeling is used by governments and major financial institutions worldwide. When they put a seven-year number on the affordability recovery, it's not a guess.
The projection reflects what it would take to close the gap between where home prices and borrowing costs are now and where they'd need to be for a typical buyer to comfortably afford a median-priced home.
Getting there would require meaningful price corrections alongside sustained rate decreases and real income growth — and researchers don't expect those conditions to align anytime soon.
What the Numbers Look Like Right Now in Naples & Fort Myers
National projections matter, but local context matters more. Here's where the Southwest Florida market actually stands as of May 2026, based on RPR data:
Naples (Collier County)
Median sold price: $605,550 (up 6.1% month over month)
Median days on market: 72 days (down 18% month over month — homes are moving faster)
List-to-sale price ratio: 94.3%
Months of inventory: 6.69 — technically a buyer's market, but tightening fast (down 15.7% from last month)
Active listings: 5,329 homes on market with a median list price of $699K
Median estimated property value: $599,690 — down 3.5% year over year, reflecting the broader softening trend
Fort Myers (Lee County)
Median sold price: $338,000 (up 4% month over month)
Median days on market: 77 days
List-to-sale price ratio: 95.5%
Months of inventory: 5.93 — a balanced market, down 42.9% over the past 12 months
Active listings: 3,286 homes on market with a median list price of $330K
Median estimated property value: $346,630 — down 5.7% year over year
What these numbers tell you: inventory is rising, days on market are elevated, and estimated values have pulled back from their 2022 peaks. That's the "buyer's market" portion of the picture. But inventory is tightening month over month, and sold prices are still climbing — which is exactly the dynamic that makes the Oxford Economics projection so relevant locally.
The Real Cost of Waiting
Waiting feels like a neutral decision. But every year a buyer stays on the sidelines, two things are working against them.
Equity. Every month a homeowner makes a mortgage payment, a portion of that goes toward building ownership in an asset.
Rent. Rent payments don't build equity, and rent prices haven't been trending down. The average renter is paying more today than they were two years ago.
A lot of buyers are counting on rates dropping. But if mortgage rates fall significantly before 2033, more buyers come off the sidelines, demand goes up, and in a market with limited inventory, prices tend to follow.
The monthly payment might not drop the way buyers are hoping, even with a lower rate, if the purchase price has climbed to meet the demand.
In Naples and Fort Myers specifically, we've already seen this play out: inventory has dropped nearly 16% in a single month while sold prices ticked back up. The "wait for better conditions" window may be narrower than people assume.
The "waiting for affordability to improve" strategy has real costs attached to it, and it's good to know those costs before making a decision.
Make the Decision with the Full Picture
The Oxford Economics projection is a data point that belongs in the conversation when you're thinking through your timeline.
Seven years is a long time to wait for conditions that may or may not arrive on schedule.
You need the full picture of housing costs for the rent vs. buy question in Naples and Fort Myers — and that means taking a closer look, not just at the local numbers, but specifically at your unique financial situation and the costs of becoming a homeowner in 2026.
If no one has walked you through the numbers to help you understand the most financially beneficial decision for your household this year, that's what I'm here for.
Ready to Run the Numbers?
Whether you're ready to move now or just want to understand what your options actually look like in today's Naples and Fort Myers market, let's talk. I'll walk you through the full picture — local inventory, what homes are actually selling for, and what the cost of waiting means specifically for your situation.
Daniel Abreu | The Abreu Group
Phone: 727.638.1704
Email: [email protected]
theabreugroup.com
Frequently Asked Questions
Will home prices drop in Naples or Fort Myers in 2026?
Estimated property values have softened year over year — Naples is down about 3.5% and Fort Myers down 5.7% from their peaks. But sold prices month over month are actually rising, with Naples up 6.1% and Fort Myers up 4% in May 2026 alone. A broad price collapse isn't what current data supports.
Should I wait for interest rates to drop before buying?
The risk with that strategy is that lower rates bring more buyers into the market, which increases competition and can push prices up. In a market like Southwest Florida where inventory is already tightening, a rate drop may not lower your monthly payment if the purchase price climbs in response.
What does Oxford Economics' 7-year forecast mean for Southwest Florida buyers?
It means the national conditions that would make housing meaningfully more affordable — price corrections, sustained rate decreases, and income growth happening together — aren't expected to align until around 2033. For local buyers, that's a useful context for evaluating how long a "wait and see" approach might actually last.
Is it a buyer's market in Naples right now?
Technically yes — Naples sits at 6.69 months of inventory, which crosses the threshold into buyer's market territory. But that number dropped 15.7% in a single month, meaning the buyer's advantage may be short-lived. Fort Myers is in balanced market territory at 5.93 months.
What is the median home price in Naples vs. Fort Myers?
As of May 2026, the median sold price in Naples is $605,550. In Fort Myers, it's $338,000. Both markets saw sold prices rise month over month despite broader softening in estimated values over the past year.
How long are homes sitting on the market in Southwest Florida?
In Naples, the median is 72 days — which actually dropped 18% month over month, a sign that the right properties are moving faster. In Fort Myers, the median is 77 days. Active listings in both markets are sitting longer, but properties priced well relative to the market are still attracting buyers.
